Page:Indian Journal of Economics Volume 2.djvu/59

 A.R OF ECO_OMIC DEVELOPMENT 47 the the two or three conclusion of peace. riohal materials will continue to rise in price, because demand for these must .remain enormous during years immediately following the Writing still of prices in Europe, it may be expected that when the trade boom due to the return of peace conditions has worked itself out there will commence a longish period of falling prices a seoulurn of twenty years or more--broken only by the usual cyclical fluctuation. The curve of the index number of English prices in the periods following 1809 and 1873 will indicate movement which seems broadly the probable. character of the When the recon- struction and contraction of credit and the reorganization inroclucing economies in production have worked out their full effect it would seem-probable that a secular rise of prices similar to that which began about 1896 may follow. ' It is certain that there will continue to be cyclical fluctuations which will be superimposed on the secular trend, and will determine the exact year of the maximum or minimum resulting from a change of secular rise to fall and v/c vrm. To forecast these cyclical fluctuations should be much easier than to foretell the duration of a secular movement. Referring back to the end of the section dealing with cyclical fluctuations (p. 44) it will be seen from the deductions there stated that if a-cycle has extended beyond 10 years it will most probably extend to 13 or 14 years. The last year in which a maximum occurred was 1907; conse- quently it would seem likely 'that the maximum following the conclusion of the'war will occur in 1920 or 1921. The exac year must depend mainly on the date of termination of the war, and on the relative effects of Russian, American and Indian harvests, and those of the southern hemisphere. Should the war be prolonged until 1920, however, it is quite possible