Page:Indian Journal of Economics Volume 2.djvu/55

 ABT OF EOONOMIO DEFELOPMENT 48 forward the hypothesis  that the irregular periodic fluctuations of harvests which average about 8} years in duration are caused by like fluctuations weather and in the radiation of solar energy. in the It would seem that arious economic factors controlling the trade cycle receive their impulse from the harvests*. The curious coincidence of the average period of recurrence of commercial crises with the average period of sunspot mama was noted long ago by my father s. For our present purpose however, it will be sufficient to note what were the years of maxima after which a sudden rapid fall of prices commenced. Going backward along the .curve of prices we find the were as stated in the left hand column below, the interval being given in the right hand clumn :-- Date o! ]x|mum Years intm'val Yetm interval 1907 7 1847 8 1900 1889 10 14 1890 185 lO 7 1880 7 1818 9 1875 9 1809 9 1864 7 1800 4 1857 10 1796 18 1847 1788  There is no index number of prices for the century preceding 1782; but the course of prices can be inferred fairly accurately from the total value of foreign trade, as may be seen by comparing prices and trade in the nineteenth century; and fortunately we have official  $#,; Heat and Traae Act;vitlt. London. P.8. King & Co. 1909. C!mlm. VI nd VH. ! W. 8. Jevons, laeestgaton in C#rre,/ ad lqau, ed. 1884, pp. 194 seq., bein reprint of paper read at British Assoeiation in 1875. 4 The index numbers for 1789 and 1783 are eqmd, but the phenomms of the Etter yemr were skin to those of other yesrs of maximum immedistely lweeeding s