Page:Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change.pdf/9

 institutions, climate-induced threats to food security sharpen the risk of social disruption, migration, or large-scale political instability.


 * The terrorist group Al-Shabaab exploited the 2011-13 famine in Somalia to coerce and tax international aid agencies, and it withheld food from those it deemed uncooperative, according to Human Rights Watch.
 * In 2015, insurgent groups in northern Mali exploited deepening desertification, worsened by persistent drought, to enlist locals in a “food for jihad” arrangement.

Heatwaves threaten livestock directly and also reduce fertility, decrease milk production, and make them more vulnerable to disease. Droughts, wildfires, and extended periods of reduced precipitation threaten pasture and food supplies, indirectly threatening livestock.


 * In Australia, the world’s third-largest beef exporter, the direct and indirect impacts of heatwaves have contributed heavily to a decline in cattle stocks to the lowest levels in 20 years.

Increased ocean temperatures and more frequent and more intense storms will increasingly threaten fisheries, many of which are already under stress from overfishing and pollution, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. As oceans become more acidic as they absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide, ecosystems on which fish and other sea life depend are further jeopardized.


 * Warm ocean temperatures have helped fuel an unprecedented, ongoing bloom of toxic red algae along the southern coastline of Chile since early May 2016. The damage to Chile’s important aquaculture industry has sparked protests from fishermen, who have blocked access to ports over what they view as inadequate governmental compensation for their losses.

Increased Risks to Human Health
Extreme heat increasingly will contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease across the globe, particularly among the elderly, according to the US National Institutes of Health. High temperatures also raise the level of ozone and other air pollutants that exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Rising sea levels and severe weather events will increasingly threaten medical infrastructure and other essential services, according to the UN World Health Organization.


 * The 2003 heatwave in Europe fueled their hottest summer on record since at least 1540, and contributed to more than 70,000 deaths, according to a peer-reviewed study by the French Institute of Health and Medical Research. Western Russia’s most extreme heatwave in recorded history was in 2010, causing more than 11,000 deaths in Moscow alone, according to scientists.
 * Heatwave-related deaths in South Asia in 2015 numbered 2,500 in India and more than 100 in Pakistan. Another intense heatwave beginning in April 2016 produced India’s highest temperature ever recorded (124°F) and has caused more than 400 deaths so far.

Higher temperature and, in some regions, more rainfall and flooding are likely to increase the frequency of water-borne diseases and diseases transmitted by insects, snails, and other cold-blooded animals in 9