Page:Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change.pdf/10

 those areas. Extended transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases are expected across a potentially larger geographic range, according to the National Institutes of Health.


 * For instance, the mosquito Aedes albopictus, which is capable of transmitting a broad range of viruses to humans, is likely to live longer in Western and Central Europe in the next few decades because of increasing temperatures, according to academic research. In contrast, projected changes on the Mediterranean coast of Spain are likely to diminish mosquito survival in that region.
 * The Vibrio cholerae bacterium, which causes cholera, thrives in warm, salty waters. Higher surfacewater temperatures and rising sea levels could introduce cholera to previously unaffected areas.

Stress on Military Operations and Basing
Globally, more frequent and intense natural disasters will strain the capacity of US and allied armed forces to deliver humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. The US military may be called upon more frequently to respond to foreign crises if its counterparts in affected countries are overstretched, unable to handle their own crises or those in their neighborhood.

We also judge that rising sea levels, flooding, droughts, higher temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events will increasingly threaten military capabilities and facilities on both US and foreign territory, including military bases and training ranges.


 * Continued reduction of sea ice will increase the importance of the Arctic as a domain for military access and operations, although the environment there will remain challenging and unpredictable.

Implications for Investments and Economic Competitiveness
Past and anticipated extreme weather events may discourage investment in regions deemed particularly vulnerable. Infrastructure will be increasingly threatened by more extreme conditions in the near future, and freshwater from aquifers will be increasingly jeopardized by saltwater intrusion. Expectations of future losses will almost certainly increase insurance premiums and payouts, and insurance rates may increase well before real effects are felt in regions deemed vulnerable.


 * The chairman of Lloyd’s of London, one of the world’s largest and most influential insurance markets, has stated that climate change is its primary concern. Allianz, Europe’s largest insurer, has said that climate-change-driven losses from extreme events could increase by 37 percent within a decade.

The financial burden of responding to emergent climate trends and severe weather events, including the cost of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, will reduce financing available for other investments, except in cases where those climate investments lead to green-growth opportunities. Increasing heat stress is likely to adversely affect agriculture, manufacturing, and other sectors requiring physical labor and could significantly contribute to GDP loss.

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 * Low-income countries are less equipped to rebound from the economic setbacks caused by extreme weather events, and an increase in the frequency of these events could contribute to or even push some people into poverty.