Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/8

 Russia), pesticides and herbicides, and more vulnerable to droughts and other extreme weather. Migration. Russia, which is already the number two destination for immigrants (after the United States) is likely to experience greater migration pressure from Central Asia, the Caucasus countries, Mongolia, and northeastern China. These latter areas are expected to experience increased water shortages and resulting economic stress. In addition, internal migration pressures may occur as residents in Russia’s many northern cities face increasing economic and climate-related challenges. Accentuation of existing socioeconomic and sociopolitical stresses. Russia is better equipped to deal with the impacts of climate change than many of its neighbors. Nonetheless, by 2030, climate change appears likely to accentuate some of the stresses that currently plague Russia. Some of the most affected regions are areas where already socioeconomic and sociopolitical relations are attenuated and unsettled. Most of the impacts of climate change will manifest themselves in smaller cities and in the Russian countryside. For example, the long-turbulent North Caucasus region will be drier, hotter, and less prosperous than it is today. The Primorskiy Kray and the Russian Far East, which have long struggled to develop peacefully next to China, appear likely to experience even greater migration pressures, which could exacerbate longstanding cross-border tensions.