Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/5



Scope Note
Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States. For each country/region we are adopting a three-phase approach.


 * In the first phase, contracted research—such as this publication—explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region/country.
 * In the second phase, a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community (IC) will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economic hardship, or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country/region.
 * In the final phase, the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit (LRAU) will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security.

EastLink Consulting, LLC, collaborating with the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) and Battelle, Pacific Northwest Division (Battelle, PNWD), developed this assessment on the climate change impact on Russia through 2030 under a contract with SCITOR Corporation. The Central Intelligence Agency’s Office of the Chief Scientist, serving as the Executive Agent for the DNI, supported and funded the contract.

This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on Russia, drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impact as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which regions within Russia are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames.

This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC understanding of potential impact on Russia and other countries/regions.