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 In the case of direct effects, the combination of more frequent droughts and heat waves has had an impact on vulnerable populations in Russia already. By 2030, as extreme weather events become more prevalent, this kind of increased risk to human health will rise further, particularly affecting the aged and infirm, especially for those unable to afford residential air conditioning.

Historically, Russia’s bitter winters served as a check on the populations of many disease-carrying pests. Rodent populations, mosquitoes, and ticks were limited by the rigor of the seasons.

In recent years, however, these historical factors have receded. For example, according to one report, Russia’s current rodent population is ten times higher than historical norms. Worse yet, one-third of the rodent population is estimated to carry one of the viruses that cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (or HFRS), which is a deadly illness if not caught early in its course. Incidences of HFRS spike after each occurrence of an unusually mild Russian winter.

As in other northern countries, mosquitoes have always been a summertime challenge in Russia. (Due to the poor quality of the housing stock, mosquitoes were often an unexpected wintertime challenge too; they would live through the winter in standing water in Russian basements, as many Western students and diplomats experienced.) But by 2030, they are expected to pose an increasing public health threat. As may as 250,000 Russians suffer from latent, local forms of malaria. West Nile and Denge Fever are reported to be spreading across the country as well.

Ticks are another disease vector that will grow worse by 2030. Tick encephalitis, Lyme disease, and tick rickettsiosis (Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever) are three of the diseases that are spreading increasingly aggressively across Russia.

Intestinal diseases are also a risk for Russia in the period to 2030. This risk will be especially significant in southern European Russia and the northern Caucasus region, where fresh water supply and water quality are expected to deteriorate as a result of climate change. However, even in distant Yakutia, in 2002, early spring flooding, which will also be increasingly common in Siberia by 2030, triggered a massive outbreak of enteric fever.

Coping Capabilities in Facing Natural Disasters
Russia is better equipped than many other countries to respond to disasters resulting from climate change, certainly much better equipped than most of its regional neighbors. The central entity involved in governmental response to natural and manmade disasters is the Russian Federation Ministry of Civil Defense, Emergency Situations, and Disaster Response (known in Russia by the shorthand “Ministry of Emergency Situations,” and often referred to in the West as “Emercom”). This organization brings together many of the functions that fall under the US Department of Homeland Security, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Coast Guard, as well as local fire departments all across the country. It is a proud, well-recognized organization that has earned public respect for its involvement in responding to a number of tragic occurrences in recent years.