Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/24

 Hydroelectric power production will realize some benefit, and some negative impacts, associated with the increase in flows of rivers that are used for hydroelectric production. As is true with the question of the length of the heating season, the net benefit or cost in 2020 remains ambiguous.

Many of the major Russian rivers will experience increased water flows due to glacial melt and selective regional precipitation changes. For the most part, this change will offer opportunities for increased power production. According to Roshydromet, the Volga-Kamsk Cascade will experience a net increase of 10-20 percent in water flows. The reservoirs throughout the Northwest Federal District will experience a 5-10 percent increase, and the massive Siberian power dams along the Angarsk-Yenisey, Vilyu, Kolyma, and Zeya will experience increases ranging as high as 15 percent. In addition, certain hydro-electric reservoirs in the southern part of the country will experience reductions in productivity due to reduced water flow. Nonetheless, operating regimes for all power dams will require review in light of anticipated climate change, according to Roshydromet. In addition, there will be increased challenges related to managing head and tail waters in the face of increased flows, and particularly in relation to increased incidence of extreme downpours.lxiv

Another energy supply-related impact from climate change to 2030 will relate to electricity transmission systems. One form of the heightened risk to power transmission will come from permafrost melt and the resulting creation of thermokarst and other unstable soil conditions. Highvoltage power lines will be one of the many kinds of structures that will be susceptible to damage as upper soil layers thaw and re-freeze. One particularly vulnerable transmission system will be the lines serving the Bilibino nuclear power plant on the Arctic coast and running from the town of Chersk to Pevek.

Another heightened risk for power transmission systems will be increased wind load on power stanchions, as on other large structures. Power lines in the North Caucasus, as well as in the regions of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, portions of Sakha (Yakutia), Irkutsk, Magadan, Khantiy-Mansiysk, and Evenkia will be exposed to 20 percent increases in wind force and may need to be reconstructed or reinforced as a consequence.lxv

Climate change by 2030 appears unlikely to sufficiently affect the Russian electric power sector as to lead to significant national security implications for the Russians. However, major power system failures could lead to serious human hardship and could therefore conceivably fuel political dissatisfaction in Russia. If a major portion of one of Russia’s regional power grids were destabilized by the failure of a major power dam, or if power supply lines failed due to unusually abrupt winds in the North Caucasus, for example, one could envision the potential for localized instability.

If the hydropower and power transmission industries face challenges as climate change intensifies, even greater challenges face the petroleum industry, with likely greater significance for the Russian economy and state. In today’s Russia, oil and gas are the predominant components of economic performance. Together they represent on the order of 60 percent of total exports and one-third or more of state revenues.lxvi Russia learned, starting in late 2008, that its economy was therefore at risk of significant volatility in case of a downturn in global energy prices, and diversifying the economy away from extractive industries is a stated goal of the Russian government. However, for the foreseeable future, the core of Russia’s economy will remain oil and gas.lxvii