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 accelerated rate. The average projected change in annual discharge in large Russian rivers is around 15 percent (range: -12 to 45 percent). Annual discharge in the Yenisey, Ob, Lena and Kolyma rivers are projected to change by 6-45 percent, -12-45 percent, 12-45 percent, and 10-45 percent, respectively. All experienced significantly larger increases in winter discharges—as much as 325 percent in a high-sensitivity scenario (4ºC).

Over this century, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves are expected in western and central Europe, possibly including parts of Russia. A record-breaking heat wave occurred in central Europe in summer 2003. This event was the hottest since instrumental records began around 1780 (1.4°C above the previous warmest in 1807) and is very likely to have been the hottest since at least 1500.

Hazardous events due to the changes in permafrost are expected to increase by 2015. Melting of permafrost islands will lead to increases in landslides, mudflows, and other dramatic and abrupt changes in the landscape. When a glacier recedes, unstable glacial lakes are formed that increase the likelihood of glacier-related outbursts and debris slides. Glacier retreat between 1985 and 2000 has resulted in a 3-6 percent increase in the proportion of glaciers covered by debris, increasing the melt rate and the likelihood of glacier-related significant events such as rock and mud slides.

On both the Baltic and Pacific coasts, a rise in sea level may result in the coastline being more vulnerable to tsunamis. Studies of the Baltic region have stressed the possibility that tsunami activity could profoundly affect the coastline. Some of the largest tsunamis ever observed have occurred along the Pacific coast, which is prone to tsunamis. The IPCC 2007 assessment identifies the Baltic and White seas as areas of probable increased flooding and erosion.

Over large areas of Russia, the number of both high-intensity and mid-intensity fire-hazard days is expected to increase. By 2015 the number of fire-hazard days may increase by more than five days in a season on most of the territory. The areas most likely to experience an increased duration of fire-hazard days (more than 7 days in a season) include areas south of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area; and in Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk Regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai Territories, Sakha-Yakutia Republic.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human-Natural Systems
In Russia, the socioeconomic impact of climate change has long been controversial. Some of Russia’s most prominent climate scientists have argued persistently that a warming climate will bring net positive benefits for a cold, massive country whose territory includes vast expanses of permafrost and undeveloped forests, while others posit some unmitigated negatives. While the debate continues among Russian observers, the weight of scientific evidence points to a more complicated picture—some significant benefits, as well as profound problems for human systems that have the potential to challenge Russia’s ability to respond.

Economic Growth and Development
The Russia that will face the unfolding impacts of climate change between now and 2030 is a Russia newly grown accustomed to relative wealth. No longer is it the economic basket case that it was in the 1980s and 1990s. In fact, until the global financial crisis began to bite in Russia in late 2008, the country had ridden a decade-long wave of economic good fortune following the crash of the Russian ruble in August 1998.

Russia is extraordinarily dependent on its extractive industries and commodity production. In addition, the country’s development has been highly uneven, with most wealth concentrated in the