Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/20

 ====Projections of Changes in Agricultural Growing Seasons==== The decline in the number of very cold winters in many regions across Russia has led to better conditions for growing winter crops. In the Central Black-Earth and Volga regions, the frequency of very cold winters has decreased from an average of 18-22 percent in the period up to 1990 to 8-10 percent in the past several years. In Northern Caucasia, this frequency has been reduced from 10 percent to 4 percent.

Conditions for growing corn have improved in many areas of European Russia. In the Stavropol Territory, “climate-related” corn yield has increased 30 percent over the past 20 years, but in parts of Asian Russia (e.g., the Baikal), corn yield has decreased.

From 1970 to 2000, the growing season (with air temperatures above +5oC) lengthened by an average of approximately 5-10 days over much of the agricultural region in European Russia. However, frost-free periods did not lengthen.

If this trend continues, agricultural production may increase significantly by 2015. The growing season is likely to be significantly lengthened. Both the growing season and duration of frost-free days may be increased on the order of 10-20 days per year. Many plant species may experience a northward migration of growing boundaries. On the Siberian rivers and in the Kama River basin, a reduction of the freeze period of as many as 15-27 days is expected by 2010-2015.

Changes in the Frequency or Strength of Extreme Climatic Events
Changes in the frequency of extreme events may be one of the most damaging consequences of climate change. Climate change over the past 10-20 years in Russia has been linked to extreme events, including heat waves, floods, and fires. The IPCC assessmentxl reports a substantial increase in the number of days with more than 10 millimeters of rain in Siberia, causing a 50-70 percent increase in surface runoff. There were also a significant increase in the number of fires in Siberian peatlands and more frequent flooding in Russian Arctic rivers due to heavy rain and earlier breakup of river ice.xli Satellite measurements show that vegetation fires, mostly forest fires, occurred over about 10 million hectares during 1997-2003. Outbreaks of disease-carrying insects also occurred in the northern part of the country, where outbreaks have never been observed in the past.xlii

Observations suggest that large floods are already more frequent.xliii By 2015, there is likely to be more flooding in river basins in the Archangelsk Region, the Komi Republic, the Ural area, and in the basins of Enisei and Lena.xliv In the Arctic, increased water discharges occurring earlier in the spring may be blocked by ice jams, causing the duration of inundated flood plains to increase from the current 12 days to 24 days. In the past five years, the Lena, one of the world’s 10 largest rivers, has experienced two floods more severe that any previous recorded flood.xlv

Ice-jam-induced floods in the Lena River Basin are expected to double by 2015. Flooding in the Far East and the Maritime areas is expected to double or triple. In the mountain and submountain regions of Northern Caucasia (Republics of North Caucasia, Stavropol Region) and in the Western and Eastern Sayan Mountains, more mudflow and landslide hazards are expected.xlvi In St. Petersburg, the probability of a disastrous flood is expected to increase in the next 5-10 years.xlvii

The average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7 percent between 1936 and 1999.xlviii Peterson et al. (2002), Wu et al. (2005) and Shiklomanov et al. (2006)xlix project Russian river discharges will continue to increase at an