Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/16

 projected to be about 3-4°C during the next 50 years. Even an optimistic scenario for projecting future greenhouse gas emissions yields a result of a 4°C increase in autumn and winter average temperatures in the Arctic by the end of this century. Recent satellite data show that the area covered with perennial ice in the Arctic Ocean has receded significantly in recent years, falling to nearly half the area observed in 2005.

During the 21st century, the thaw depth will increase substantially, summer soil moisture will eventually be reduced, and a poleward movement of the permafrost extent is expected. Based on three global climate models (Canadian Climate Center scenario, GFDL scenario and ECHAM scenario), a 30-40 percent increase in active layer thickness for most of the permafrost area is projected, with the largest relative increases concentrated in the northernmost locations.

Regionally, the changes are a response to both increased temperature and increased precipitation (changes in circulation patterns). In a few regions, Siberia for example, the amount of snow is projected to increase because of the increase in precipitation (snowfall) from autumn to winter. Consistent results from the majority of the current generation of models show, for a future warmer climate, that a poleward shift of storm tracks occurs with greater storm activity at higher latitudes.

Most models ignore the effect of land cover change in future projections. Past and future changes in land cover may affect the climate in several ways, causing changes in albedo, in the ratio of latent to sensible heat, and therefore in surface temperature, and in CO2 fluxes to and from the land. No coupled AOGCM has included all the effects of land cover changes. The general consensus is that land cover changes may be very important at the regional level, where these changes occur.

At the regional level, the Russian Federation has considerable experience in climate modeling, with three centers of research: St.Petersburg V.A. Fock Institute of Physics; Institute for Numerical Mathematics (INM) in Moscow, and the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics in the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP-RAS) in Moscow. Both the INM and the IAP-RAS have their own climate models, although only the former submitted simulation data as part of the IPCC fourth assessment process.

Table 1 shows the 2080-2099 temperature and precipitation projections from a set of 21 global models. The numbers represent average (mean) changes from the period 1980-1999 over the 21 models. For each season, the minimum, 25 percent, 50 percent, 75 percent, and maximum changes are shown. For example, for the winter (DJF, or December, January and February), the average minimum temperature increase is 2.9°C, and the average precipitation change is +12 percent.

The five-to-10-year projections of the Russian hydro-dynamical climate models match very well with the model projections of the IPCC AR4, when the same scenarios and assumptions are used. These projections suggest that the mean annual surface air temperature over Russia will increase over the next five to 10 years by 0.60oC±0.2 from the annual mean temperature in the year 2000. The increase in temperature will vary by region, but by 2015 the average winter temperatures will have increased by an additional 1°C. In summer, the increase is only expected to be 0.40°C. During this same period, annual averaged precipitation is projected to increase by 4-6 percent, with the increase being as much as 7-9 percent north of Eastern Siberia.