Page:Impact of Climate Change in 2030 Russia (2009).pdf/13



Figure 1. Surface air temperature increase in Russia, the Northern Hemisphere, and the world, 1900-2004. Source: Dobrolyubova, Julia, Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in the Russian Federation (Moscow: Russian Regional Environmental Centre, November 19-20, 2007), slides.

Melting permafrost serves as another revealing indicator of climate change. Significant areas of the Russian permafrost zone, which covers 60 percent of the country (the largest such region in the world falling under a single nation’s jurisdiction), clearly show a trend of temperature increase in the top layers of frozen ground from the 1970s to the 1990s, corresponding with the warming of the atmosphere. Although climate change in European Russia is less severe than in Siberia, the change in the condition of frozen terrain is no less substantial. In the past 20-30 years, temperatures in the frozen ground of Russia’s European Arctic and Subarctic have increased between 0.22 and 1.56°C, matching increases in the number and thickness of taliks (thawed underground pockets). These observations suggest a progressive increase in seasonally thawing soil, as well as a 14-80 percent increase in thawed pockets of soil in individual regions of the Russian Arctic.ix

Areas of seasonal frost have also shifted noticeably northward, and the area of isolated and sporadic pockets of frozen soil has decreased.x Although deeper layers of frozen soil are insulated against thawing by icy strata and organic soil and vegetation, models suggest that deeper seasonal thawing may change the composition of plant and animal communities.xi Natural tundra will likely grow smaller disappear entirely as a result. xii

Satellite-derived measurements of snowfall show a spring and summertime decrease, likely due to increased temperatures. Snow accumulation over Russia accounts for about 5 percent of fresh water discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Significant changes in fresh water discharge have affected the salinity, sea ice distribution and circulation of the Arctic and nearby oceans. North of 50° N