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 increasing privacy protection – including ubiquitous encryption – presents particular problems for GCHQ, and in the case of Russia it faces a real SIGINT challenge with the use by the Russian government of ***.

98.In terms of human intelligence (HUMINT) operations, technological advancements that gather and analyse data on individuals have generally increased the difficulty ***. The expansion of smart city technology (such as CCTV, smart sensors and mobile device tracking), and the capability that this provides, has increased the ability of ***. ***.

99.Covert activity against any state carries the potential for conflict, and action against a nuclear hostile state even more so given the risk of escalation into diplomatic, economic or even military conflict. The Agencies and Defence Intelligence must therefore be particularly discerning ***.

100.In the case of Russia, the potential for escalation is particularly potent: the Russian regime is paranoid about Western intelligence activities and "is not able to treat objectively" international condemnation of its actions. It views any such moves as Western efforts to encourage internal protest and regime change. The risk is compounded by limitations on UK engagement with the Russian government at official and political levels, making deciphering Russian leadership intent even more difficult.

101.Due to the difficulty of ***, the Intelligence Community have focused their effort on *** main strategic targets, which they assess will provide insight on the most important strategic topics, with intelligence on the lowest priorities collected on an 'opportunity-only' basis. These key targets are ***.

102.***.

103.SIS told us that this means operating with "strategic patience" in terms of both recruiting agents and increasing staff. Whilst there are a *** group of staff working on this issue, SIS was clear that a sudden surge in numbers would not yield results more quickly. It is the difficulty of recruiting Russian agents with the right accesses, and the careful planning, tradecraft and operational security around any prospective agents – so as to ensure their safety and minimise any political risk to HMG – which means that it takes a relatively long time for intelligence efforts to produce results.