Page:Hong Kong Basic Law consultation report vol. 1.djvu/44

 5.3.2.1 Provided the sample size is large enough, the adoption of a scientific marketing reserachresearch [sic] method for gauging the opinions of members of the public may be considered. However, the larger the sample, the higher the costs.

5.3.2.2 The scientific nature of public opinion polls should not be queried. However, if the poll is not comprehensive enough, it will become even more unscientific because inadequate representation will be highly misleading. It may even undo all the work the CCBL has done.

5.3.2.3 Public opinion polls are scientific in some ways, but they also have their unscientific aspects. For instance, individual persons have different interpretations and standards of democracy. If such interpretations and standards of democracy are summed up through a public opinion poll, the results could be very misleading. In fact, there have been public opinion polls which produced contradictory results.

5.3.2.4 Public opinion polls are undoubtedly a scientific method, provided that representative opinions on the matters being surveyed can be obtained through this kind of surveys. The Basic Law (Draft) is a very complicated legal instrument. It is reported that less than one per cent of the population in Hong Kong have read the Draft. Hence, it is impossible to request people in Hong Kong to express their opinions on the Basic Law systematically.

5.3.2.5 The CCBL has not altogether denied the function of public opinion polls. Its main consideration is whether it is appropriate to have a opinion poll conducted by itself. Members of the public as well as other organizations may conduct opinion polls individually. And the CCBL will convey faithfully those results it receives to the Drafting Committee.

5.3.2.6 The results of a sample survey are valid only for a limited period of time because the inclinations of the public on certain issues are subject to the influence of many factors. The accuracy of the survey results very often depends on the respondents' understanding of the issue itself and of the questions asked in the survey at that time. Their opinions are at the same time influenced by the public opinion and the happenings around them. The attitude of the public towards certain issues may change tremendously within a certain period. Thus, many marketing researches are conducted regularly, for example, twice to four times a year. If the inclinations of the public concerning certain Basic Law-related matters are gauged by a single survey, the quantified opinions will probably become outdated after a few months.