Page:Hong Kong Basic Law consultation report vol. 1.djvu/34

 in Hong Kong to answer the questionnaire. Then, the answers given by these people in the questionnaire will be quantified. By means of statistical inference, these results may, within a certain range of deviation, be reckoned to be good estimates of the response of the whole adult population in Hong Kong. On this basis, the proportions of the population who chose the individual fixed answers to the questions presented in the questionnaire are measured. Some of the existing opinions advocating a sample survey are in favour of disclosing the questionnaire before the survey so that people of different opinions can conduct publicity campaigns on these questions. Such a suggestion is against the normal practice of sample surveys. Furthermore, if CCBL members of different political views are allowed to participate in the design of the questionnaire, it will be impossible to keep the questions confidential. But if they are not allowed to participate, the fairness and objectivity of the survey will be queried.

3.2 The role of the CCBL

Since the above-mentioned process involves many technical and operational problems, the major parts of the job cannot be done by the CCBL or its Secretariat itself. So the practical question facing the CCBL is whether the CCBL should commission a professional marketing research company to conduct a territory-wide sample survey to gauge the opinions of people in Hong Kong on certain issues through quantitative means.

3.3 Actual procedures of a sample survey

3.3.1 Establish the objective of the survey

With regard to the existing proposals that a sample survey should be conducted on the Basic Law (Draft), the object ie of such a survey has not been discussed in depth, and no clear and specific objecti^"e has been established. But the following objectives have been mentioned: (1) to find out the preference of members of the public concerning the various political models; (2) to find out to what degree members of the public have accepted the Basic Law (Draft) as a whole; (3) as a means for collecting the opinions of the silent majority; and (1) as a means for giving members of the public a chance to participate in the consultation on the Basic Law. Some of these objectives have common ground while some are contradictory. At the same time, there exists the question as to whether it is possible to achie'e these objectives by a sample survey. But if a survey is to be conducted, the objective must be established before the actual survey can be launched in accordance with this objective.