Page:Hong Kong Basic Law consultation report vol. 1.djvu/33

 conduct a public opinion poll or a referendum to gauge the inclinations of the public, thus helping the Drafting Committee understand the wishes of Hong Kong people. Although public opinion polls and referendums are completely different in nature, they have been confused and placed on a par in a number of the opinions. Actually, in those opinions which call for a public opinion poll conducted by the CCBL, what is being requested is generally a "sample survey", i.e. to select a sample by statistical methods for interviewing after which the results will be computed. The questionnaire for a sample survey is usually not disclosed to the public in order to minimize the influence of the public opinion on the respondents' emotions; whereas a referendum is the submission of a simple and publicly known issue to the direct vote of the eligible voters after discussion, propaganda or agitation among the public. The problems involved in a referendum are completely different from those in a sample survey. The holding of a referendum requires rules for such procedures as the registration of voters and the voting, which must be conducted in compliance with strict political standards. Since the Basic Law is the business of the Chinese Government while Hong Kong is to remain under British administration prior to 1997, the registration of voters and voting under these circumstances will touch on many complicated political issues. The CCBL as a non-governmental organization is not in a position to carry out the work of this nature. It therefore has not discussed or studied the possibility of holding a referendum, nor has any CCBL member put forward such a request.

2.2 As regards the handling of the results of an opinion poll or a referendum, among those opinions advocating a public opinion poll or a referendum, some maintain that the results should only be for the reference of the Drafting Committee and should not, in any way, be binding. However, there are also opinions which hold that the results should be binding on the Drafting Committee, and should not be for reference only.

3. Factors to be considered when conducting a sample survey

3.1 Method

The "public opinion poll" under discussion in fact refers to a random sample survey by statistical methods. The normal practice is to first design a questionnaire, translating the matters to be studied into a series of simple, clear and direct questions with a number of fixed answers attached to each question. Then by way of random selection, 500 to 6,000 people (in actual cases, the sample size is usually around 1,000 to 3,000 people) will be sampled from the adult population