Page:Gametronics Proceedings.djvu/169

 marketplace, can see from table one, it is alive and healthy today.

At the present time, the TV game marketplace shows no sign of doing anything but increasing sharply. Projections for 1977 TV game sales are in the order of $425 million, which will, in all probability, propel game sales past electronic calculator sales. Had any forecaster projected this a year ago, his sanity would have been questioned. By the way, the 1977 sales forecasts (see table two), indicate that microwave oven sales will reach $800 million in 1977. However, two years ago there was grave question if this industry even had a future because of some reports about microwave ovens causing cataracts and other injuries due to radiation leakage.

One research organization, Frost & Sullivan, warned in a recent report that TV game sales predictions were misleading and that it didn't anticipate the major marketplace evolution that others were forecasting. Our indications are entirely opposite. The feeling by many that the TV games industry will reach $1 billion in retail sales in 1980 is shared by the research department of Electronic Engineering Times.

As indicated in table three, sales of home TV games should rise from approximately $187 million in 1976 to $425 million in 1977. This represents an increase in unit sales from 3.39 million to 8 million.

Retail prices will make TV home games very affordable. Magnavox, for example, is preparing to supply a 24-game, 4-hand control color system in September 1977 priced at under $100. This non-programmable system will include the conventional paddle games (tennis, hockey, etc.) plus basketball, volleyball, helicopter, and tank games. National Semiconductor is scheduled to bring out its next generation of Adversary in June, which adds three new games including a simulated pinball machine game to existing games with no changes in its existing model–a new chip is the only change required and it will replace the current chip, which is socketed (not soldered in) the circuit.

The price for a programmable game, although still rising in 1977, is expected to begin dropping sharply by 1978. In a similar manner, the cost of replaceable cartridges will also drop. The first programmable system, Fairchild's video entertainment system, was priced at $155 for the basic system and $20 for each additional cartridge purchased. During 1978 it is likely that similar systems will sell for $65 to $75 and cartridges will be well under $10. As shown in table four, prices for programmable games should continue to drop through 1980.

Stiff competition in the TV game industry is likely to force many small companies out of the running during 1977 and 1978. On the other hand, as more semiconductor manufacturers follow General Instrument into the game-on-a-chip business