Page:Ford, Kissinger - August 17, 1974(Gerald Ford Library)(1552754).pdf/2

 The Shah is a tough, mean guy. But he is our real friend. He is the only ohe who would stand up to the Soviet Union. We need him for balance against India. We can't tackle him without breaking him. We can get to him by cutting military supplies, and the French would be delighted to replace them.

He didn't join the embargo.

Right. Simon agrees now, though. The strategy of tackling the Shah won't work. We are now thinking of other ways. First, we have to get the IEP going. Second, we have to use the Library Group, an informal finance group which is meeting on 7 September to raise the problem of oil prices and work for a coherent structure to deal with it. Third, there is a meeting of the IMF board at the end of September, and the UN Foreign Ministers will be here. We thought of assembling the Finance and Foreign Ministers then and put a more daring action program to them. It will be refused -- like the February Energy Conference. France won't go along. That is okay, because in six months they will be eager to join. If there is a crisis, we will be out in front and can organize it. We will get some cooperation, though.

But as a precondition, we need to get our own energy program in hand. Conservation has gone by the board. If we don't show a shrinkage; our allies won't. There is a forty percent chance of a Middle East blowup.

There is no problem getting conservation started again, but the coal moratorium is a problem. Maybe that gives us a lever to get conservation going again.

If the public focuses on the fact this is not just a coal strike but an energy crisis.

We don't have to attack the workers but show it as an illustration of the energy problems.

Everyone now agrees on the necessity of what we proposed at the Washington Energy Conference.

The conservationists are launching an offensive and this would give us a chance to fight against it on grounds the crisis continues.