Page:Finch Group report.pdf/73

 since the proportion of articles published in journals with very high rejection rates is relatively low, their impact on the average level of APCs is likely to be correspondingly small.

7.18. Nevertheless, we have considered a number of variations to our model, and the impact on the costs and/or savings to the HE and to other sectors. The tables in Annex E examine four sets of possible variations to the starting point for analysis described above:


 * i. changing the average level of APCs by between 10% and 50%;


 * ii. changing the level of take-up of open access publishing both in the UK and the rest of the world from 23.3%, considering levels between 10% and 50%;


 * iii. allowing for lower levels of take-up of open access publishing in the rest of the world, as compared with the UK;


 * iv. taking account of the high-proportion (c46% in 2010) of articles published by UK authors which included also an author from overseas, and varying the proportion of UK-authored articles for which the full cost of the APC would be borne in the UK.

7.19. The tables indicate that under all but two variations from the point at which the analysis starts (thus only if the level of take-up in the rest of the world were to be as low as 40% or less of the UK rate), there would be cash savings to individuals and organisations outside the HE sector, resulting in the main from reduction in revenues for publishers. Those cash savings would be in addition to the wider benefits such organisations would receive as a result of higher levels of access to journals. But several of the variations would lead to increased costs for the HE sector.


 * i. If the average level of APCs were to be c£2,175, rather than £1,450 (i.e. 50% higher than the starting point for our analysis), the HE sector would face additional costs of £11m a year, on top of the £175m currently being spent on journals and providing access to them. There would still, however, be savings to other sectors.


 * ii. Varying the level of take-up of open access publishing in the UK and the rest of the world, so that it reaches 50% of the global total of articles published each year, would have no impact on costs to the HE sector, so long as the average level of APCs remained at c£1,450. But the cash savings to other sectors would rise significantly, to nearly £16m a year.


 * iii. If as a result of measures to accelerate the transition to open access publishing, the level of take-up were to be significantly higher in the UK than in the rest of the world, there is the risk that the UK, and the HE sector in particular, would bear significant costs, while reaping only some of the benefits. Articles from UK authors would be made available around the world open access; but UK universities and other organisations would still