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 production of research publications is disproportionate to its consumption of the publications produced elsewhere. Countries with lower rates of productivity tend, by contrast, to be net consumers of publications. This clearly has implications for the costs borne by different countries in supporting a global system characterised by a complex web of interdependencies.

6.17. It has been estimated that under current circumstances, where the subscription model still predominates (that is, where publishing costs are met in the main by readers, or the institutions that employ them), and where access beyond the academic and research communities is limited, the UK meets between 4% and 5% of the global costs of publishing and dissemination. A global shift towards open access publishing funded by APCs is likely to lead to an increase in that proportion. The cash contribution from the UK may not rise—under certain optimistic assumptions it might even fall. But that will be the case only if market pressures keep publishing costs, and the level of APCs, in check; and if the UK does not during the period of transition take up open access publishing at a rate significantly faster than the rest of the world. Any significant move to extend licensed access beyond the groups that are currently covered is also likely to require an increase in funding.

F. Costs and affordability for universities

6.18. In considering costs to universities, it is important also to consider the roles of different funders of research, and how they might stimulate, or be affected by, changes in the current balance of research publications and business models. Under the dual support system, Government funding for research is divided into two main streams: the Higher Education Funding Councils provide block grant to universities for research infrastructure and to support their strategic research priorities; and Research Councils provide grants to meet most of the full economic costs of specific projects and programmes of research. Under these arrangements, Funding Councils’ block grant plays a major role in meeting the costs of university libraries. But as we have noted earlier, there are no systematic arrangements for the payment of APCs, and that constitutes a significant barrier against the more widespread adoption of open access publishing. Higher levels of adoption will require some modifications to the rules relating to the use of Research Council grants in particular. Moreover, any new arrangements will have to take account of the policies and interests of other funders of research in the public, commercial and voluntary sectors.

6.19. Expenditure on academic libraries in total amounted in 2010 to 2.7% of overall university expenditure. For universities as for research funders, there is an