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 For ease of reference, Table 0.2 provides details of the key assumptions in the OR Report cost modelling that relate to the Gold Scenario. The same assumptions are used in the Gold Scenario modelled for the purpose of this note.

Table 0.2: Key cost-related assumptions that affect the Gold Scenario

RESULTS - SENSITIVITIES

For our sensitivity analysis, our starting point is the updated Gold Scenario (hereafter referred to as the ‘Central Case’). As stated in Section 1, we run sensitivities based on:


 * The level of article processing charge (APC). The variations are the percentage change from the APC, set at the level where academic institutions breakeven, in the Central Case, and we consider sensitivities of ±10%, ±20% and +50% of this figure.


 * The level of Gold uptake in the UK and rest of the world. This sensitivity considers the impact from changing the level of Gold uptake globally (i.e. by the same proportion in both the UK and the rest of the world). In the Central Case the level of Gold uptake is 23%, which is a weighted average of Science and Technology articles (15% open access), Mathematics (40%) and Arts and Humanities (5%). We consider average levels of Gold open access ranging from 10% (i.e. lower than the Central Case) up to 50%.


 * Gold uptake in rest of world versus the UK. This sensitivity explores the impact on the UK of the rest of the world moving to a lower proportion of author-side payments than the UK.


 * Percentage of UK-produced articles with a UK corresponding author. As stated above, UK article production (i.e. published article having at least one UK author) is 123,594 in 2010, but some of these articles may not have a UK corresponding author. If we assume that author-side payments will be made by the corresponding author only, then a reduction in the percentage of UK corresponding authors would reduce the costs to the UK. An estimate arising from the BIS study, but unpublished, is that 65% of UK article production has a UK corresponding author listed.

The Central Case that we have used in the report is one in which the APC is set a level at which there is a zero impact on academic institutions (on average).