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 difficult to predict how fast or comprehensive it will be. It is clearly in the interests of the UK to enhance its role in international discussions on these issues.

Much also depends on levels of APCs and also of the amounts that continue to be paid to publishers in subscriptions, and it is important that in the context of the mixed model we recommend for the medium term, both should be looked at together. Hence the importance of publishers’ providing clear information about the balance between the revenues provided in APCs and in subscriptions. But one of the advantages of open access publishing is that it brings greater transparency about the costs, and the price, of publication and dissemination. The measures we recommend will bring greater competition on price as well as the status of the journals in which researchers wish to publish. We therefore expect market competition to intensify, and that universities and funders should be able to use their power as purchasers to bear down on the costs to them both of APCs and of subscriptions.

Taking all these factors into account, our best estimate is that achieving a significant and sustainable increase in access, making best use of all three mechanisms, would require an additional £50-60m a year in expenditure from the HE sector: £38m on publishing in open access journals, £10m on extensions to licences for the HE and health sectors and £3-5m on repositories, plus one-off transition costs of £5m.

The uncertainties we have outlined clearly mean that there is a risk that the costs could be higher than we estimate. But that risk can be managed by slowing the pace of transition. Moreover, the costs are modest in relation to total public expenditure on research (£5.5bn from the Research Councils and Funding Councils alone). Indeed, we believe meeting the costs of transition is essential in order to manage in an ordered way the move from a research communications system which is becoming increasingly unsustainable as a result of the economic, technological and social changes we have highlighted. While any estimates of the benefits that will accrue to the UK economy and society are similarly subject to much uncertainty, it is clear that the benefits will be real and substantial. In short, we believe that the investments necessary to improve the current research communications system will yield significant returns in improving the efficiency of research, and in enhancing its impact for the benefit of everyone in the UK.

6. What will change

The measures we recommend should begin to make a difference quickly but the whole transition process will come to fruition over a number of years.

Open access publication

Our recommendations and the establishment of systematic and flexible arrangements for the payment of APCs will stimulate publishers to provide an open access option in more journals. Most universities will establish funds for the payment of APCs, along with policies and procedures which will in some cases moves towards open access as the default mode of publication. That will give universities a greater role in helping researchers to make judgements, in line with academic freedom, about how they publish their work. Different universities may develop different ways of handling this in consultation with their staff. The result will be that a much higher proportion of the publications produced by researchers in the UK will be freely accessible to everyone in the world, with minimal restrictions on their use and re-use.

Subscriptions and licences

Subscription-based journals will remain a key channel for the publication of research results from across the world for some years to come. Implementation of our recommendations will