Page:Final Draft of the 2017 Climate Science Special Report.pdf/2

 28 June 2017

CSSR 5OD: Final Clearance

U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM CLIMATE SCIENCE SPECIAL REPORT (CSSR) Fifth-Order Draft Table of Contents Front Matter About This Report .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Guide to the Report ........................................................................................................................................................ 4

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 12

Chapters 1.

Our Globally Changing Climate .................................................................................................................... 38

2.

Physical Drivers of Climate Change ............................................................................................................. 98

3.

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change ............................................................................................. 160

4.

Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections ............................................................................................... 186

5.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ........................................................................................ 228

6.

Temperature Changes in the United States ................................................................................................. 267

7.

Precipitation Change in the United States ................................................................................................... 301

8.

Droughts, Floods, and Hydrology ............................................................................................................... 336

9.

Extreme Storms ........................................................................................................................................... 375

10.

Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry .......................................................................... 405

11.

Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States .......................................... 443

12.

Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................................................. 493

13.

Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes .......................................................................................... 540

14.

Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation ............................................................................................... 584

15.

Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements ............................................................... 608

Appendices A.

Observational Datasets Used in Climate Studies ........................................................................................ 636

B.

Weighting Strategy for the Fourth National Climate Assessment .............................................................. 642

C.

Detection and Attribution Methodologies Overview ................................................................................... 652

D.

Acronyms and Units ..................................................................................................................................... 664

E.

Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ 669

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