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 or localizes its narrative. The examples above demonstrate how crowd-sourced conspiracy theories can influence which entities extremists choose to target. These examples also substantiate concerns expressed by some researchers who believe a rise of conspiracism, fostered in part by the Internet, may be accompanied by a search for scapegoats—those believed to be the conspirators' allies, henchmen, or collaborators.

(U//FOUO) This is the first FBI product examining the threat from conspiracy theory-driven domestic extremists and provides a baseline for future intelligence products.

(U) Analysis of Alternatives

(U//FOUO) The FBI considered the alternative hypothesis that domestic extremists likely turn to violence only as a result of an underlying extremist ideology (such as militia extremism or white racially motivated violent extremism), whereas conspiracy beliefs held by such extremists do not play a role in their mobilization to violence. The FBI deemed this alternative to be less likely because these conspiracy beliefs have motivated, at least in part, several high profile violent acts, or have influenced the perpetrators—to the extent that they attributed their actions to their conspiratorial beliefs before or after their arrests. In addition, academic research indicates conspiracy beliefs are not only prevalent and influential in domestic extremist circles and among those with extreme political views, but often serve to magnify and exacerbate existing extremist sentiments. One indicator that would increase the likelihood of this alternative hypothesis is the absence or decrease in incidents over the long term in which domestic extremists engage in violent acts on the basis of their conspiracy beliefs.

(U) Outlook

(U//FOUO) The FBI assesses anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories very likely will emerge, spread, and evolve in the modern information marketplace over the near term, fostering anti-government sentiment, promoting racial and religious prejudice, increasing political tensions, and occasionally driving both groups and individuals to commit criminal or violent acts. Because some conspiracy theories are highly partisan in nature, political developments, including those surrounding major election cycles such as the 2020 presidential election, likely will impact the direction of these conspiracy theories and the potential activities of extremists who subscribe to them over the long term. Another factor driving the intensity of conspiracy theorizing in the United States, and the subsequent threat from conspiracy-minded extremists, is the uncovering of real conspiracies or cover-ups involving illegal, harmful, or unconstitutional activities by government officials or leading political figures. Indicators that these scenarios are emerging include disrupted plots or successful attacks against popular conspiracy theory targets, such as government facilities, synagogues, mosques, or partisan political figures. Additionally, reports of a sudden rise in threats and unfounded accusations against a given individual or business may indicate impending conspiracy theory-driven crime or violence.

(U) Intelligence Requirements


 * (U) FBI National Standing Collection Requirements