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Rh and Supreme Court decisions, it was difficult to see how far the country was really advancing in its attempt to control capital and satisfy labour. The only clear result was that the Republican party was weakening, and that President Taft's popularity and influence were lessening. The diminution of power vested in the Speaker was an evidence both of discontent and of willingness to disregard party lines; and the State and Congressional elections of 1910 were unfavourable to the Republicans. The insurgents, who soon came to be called Progressives, gained most of the Republican districts in the west; and the Democrats gained about 50 seats in Congress, which transferred to them the control of the House; while in the Senate they had 41 of the 92 members.

The dissatisfied Republicans began to look forward to the presidential election of 1912, and a group of them gathered about Senator La Follette of Wisconsin as a leader and presumptive candidate. Meanwhile the state Legislatures were passing primary laws some of which included the choice of delegates to national nominating conventions. La Follette had broken into the Republican party organization in his own state, secured the governorship, and entered the U.S. Senate, where he violated the traditions of that conservative body by making speeches without waiting the usual length of time. Taft's friends and supporters naturally expected that the President would be renominated.

All these calculations were upset by the greatest personality in the country, Theodore Roosevelt. A few weeks after leaving the White House (1909) he undertook an expedition to Central Africa, and before returning made a series of visits to the countries of W. Europe. He was received as the ex-President of the most important of republics and as a commanding personage; immense crowds greeted him as a world celebrity. He returned to the United States June 18 1910 to find political conditions little to his liking. Most of his friends had disappeared from the Administration; his policies, particularly as to conservation and the more rigorous control of the trusts, seemed to him to have been slighted. Without any open breach of personal friendship Taft did not satisfy the ex-President, and the two drifted apart. On the other hand, the insurgent Republicans included some of Roosevelt's warm friends. It was impossible for him to remain silent, for he was called upon to speak in all parts of the country. Aug. 31 1910 at Osawatomie, Kan., he set forth a programme which he called “the new Nationalism,” favouring publicity of the accounts and proceedings of trusts, a tariff commission, a graduated income-tax, a proper army and navy, conservation, protection of labour, and the direct primary with the recall of elective officers. This was a programme which could not be accepted by the conservative or “stand-pat” Republicans, with whom, by this time, President Taft, was included.

Nevertheless, throughout 1911 Roosevelt made no direct movement towards standing for the presidency. He publicly attacked Taft's position on the trusts in the columns of The Outlook of which he had become an editor, and openly classed himself as a Progressive. Meanwhile several of the western states, particularly California under the guidance of Gov. Hiram Johnson, had accepted a radical programme of political and social reform. A formal breach with Taft and the open candidacy of Roosevelt seemed inevitable. The crisis came when, Feb. 2 1912, La Follette suffered a physical and mental collapse which put him out of consideration; and on Feb. 12 President Taft in a speech alluded to the Progressives (evidently having Roosevelt in mind) as “Extremists not Progressives; they are political emotionaries, or neurotics.” This was taken as a challenge and a few days later Roosevelt openly declared himself a candidate, adding, “My hat is in the ring.” Primaries or conventions had already been held in several states which would have instructed their delegations to support Roosevelt if they had known his purposes; in another large group of states, and those for the most part states that formed the backbone of the party, there was still time to organize and select delegates favouring Roosevelt.

Election of 1912.—As the convention held at Chicago approached, the lines of battle were developed. Behind Taft were Barnes of New York, Penrose of Pennsylvania, Crane of Massachusetts, and other “stand-pat” leaders. Among those in favour of Roosevelt were Garfield of Ohio, Pinchot of Pennsylvania and a strong body of Republican governors. Roosevelt himself had come to Chicago, established headquarters there, and thrown his immense energy and enthusiasm into the campaign. The convention was a scene of unusual excitement. Out of the 1,076 delegates something near 400 were pledged to Roosevelt, and there seemed a good chance of gaining for him some of the southern delegates, of whom a large number were negroes who recognized Roosevelt as favourable to their race. The decision was not made in open convention, but in the preliminary meetings of the national committee (chosen in 1908), which was strongly “stand-pat”; for that committee had to decide upon the right of claimants to be inscribed in the preliminary roll of delegates. The Roosevelt managers entered contests for many seats and had an especially strong case as to Missouri, Washington and two seats for California. In the end, every contest except that of Missouri was settled in favour of the Taft claimants. Even then the combination was almost broken. Notwithstanding the fact that the temporary organization was in the hands of Roosevelt's enemies, among them Elihu Root, his former Secretary of State, a test vote for temporary chairman showed 558 votes for Root against 502 for the anti-Taft forces. The shifting of 30 delegates from one side to the other in all probability would have brought about a “stampede” to Roosevelt; and those delegates Roosevelt would have had if he had thrown his “hat into the ring” two months earlier.

The conservative Republicans being thus in control, there was nothing for the Roosevelt men to do but to protest to the last. Roosevelt advised his delegates to take no further part in the proceedings. At the final roll-call, June 22, there were 561 votes for Taft, 58 scattering, and 107 for Roosevelt, besides 344 Roosevelt men not voting. In the last issue, therefore, Taft had a majority of 50 votes out of 1,070. Fairbanks of Indiana was nominated for Vice-President. In the minds of the conservative Republicans Roosevelt was extinct. He had entered the convention, been defeated, and he must bow to the will of the majority. In the minds of Roosevelt and most of his followers the nomination was a violation of the principles of popular government. At a great meeting held the same night Roosevelt openly advised a bolt. This was duly accomplished by a formal Progressive Convention which met in Chicago in Aug. and nominated Roosevelt for president and Hiram Johnson, of California, for vice-president.

Meanwhile the Democratic Convention at Baltimore met under the guidance of William J. Bryan, who had no hope of being the candidate himself but proved to be in a position to dictate the choice. He declared open war upon the capitalistic delegates, one of whom was sitting on the platform. The apparently sure candidate was Speaker Champ Clark of Missouri, who received a majority of the votes, but under the rules of the Democratic Convention requiring a two-thirds majority, he was finally defeated by Woodrow Wilson, governor of New Jersey, owing to the vigorous support of Bryan. Gov. Marshall of Indiana was nominated for vice-president. The platforms of the two old parties were of an usual type. The Republicans as usual declared for protective duties. The Democrats stood by their platform of a tariff for revenue only, additional regulation of the railways and presidential preference primaries. The Progressive platform was a general programme of political reform and “an enlarged measure of social and industrial justice.”

It was not the platform, however, but men that appealed to the voters. The issue was really Roosevelt, Taft, or Wilson. Not for 50 years had there been so stirring a campaign. All three candidates took the field; and for the first time in presidential campaigns “soap-box” speakers appeared in large numbers on the streets of the cities. From the first it was clear that the real fight was between Roosevelt and Wilson, since Taft had to bear the unpopularity of the Republican party and also the Progressive charge that the Chicago Convention had given him a stolen nomination. The Progressives were well organized and their convention and campaign included many women. The final question was whether Roosevelt could draw to himself a