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once but often it has been proved that Turkish authorities find no difficulty in preventing outbreaks-of the kind if they choose; that, in fact, massacre is, at bottom, the result of official connivance more or less direct. The Cilician massacres have been charged to "Abdul Hamid and his satellites, as an effort by him to discredit the government of the Young Turks. They have been charged to the Young Turks, as an effort by them to discredit 'Abdul Hamid, who had been deposed on April 9 just one week before the affair at Adana. Notwithstanding the vehement disavowal of cojnplicity by the Government, and their ostentatious endeavours to compensate sufferers and provide for orphaned Armenians; notwithstanding the Turkish Commis- sion of Inquiry, and the impartial hanging of Moslems and Armenians, time brings the guilt home more and more definitely to Young Turk leaders.

That the Armenians of Cilicia were blameless cannot be maintained. After the first fraternal demonstrations of the revolution they had adopted a manner toward their Moslem fellow citizens provocative and unwise beyond belief. They had indulged in Armenian national processions, displaying the flag of an independent Armenia; had publicly boasted that Cilicia itself was soon to become an independent Armenia; had insulted and beaten Moslems in the streets of Adana. To the fatal influence of these follies were added the economic facts that Armenian land-owners, already in possession of the richest areas of the Cilician plain, were rapidly increasing their holdings; and that the Armenian population prospered and multiplied while the Moslem population declined. The Moslems of Cilicia, indeed, were gloomily brooding over Armenian affronts to their patriotism, and economic Armenian encroachments on their position as the dominant and ruling race. These matters com- bined formed a mass of highly inflammable material.

Armenian Political Position. As the Young Turk Govern- ment consolidated itself, and its control passed finally into the hands of the Subterranean Committee of Union and Progress, so the prospect of Armenians receiving equal treatment within the Empire disappeared. Armenian representation in Parliament was curtailed by means both direct and indirect. The total number of Armenians who might sit in the Chamber was arbitrarily fixed, irrespective of election results. The lists of voters were compiled under conditions that weighed against Armenians obtaining the vote in the proportion to which their numbers entitled them. In common with other Ottoman Christians the place of Armenians in the State became, in effect, that of undesirable aliens.

Turkish Wars of 1911-3.- The Italo-Turkish War of 1911-2 passed without changing the Armenian position. Nor did the first Balkan War, 1912-3, greatly affect the race except as to military service. During these wars it seemed, indeed, that massacre did not suit the policy of the Government, the desire being to stand well with the Powers. None therefore took place. In the Balkan War, however, military service fell heavily upon the Armenian subjects of the Empire for the first time. They were not permitted to serve forming Armenian units, but were distributed throughout the army; and the most labo- rious and dangerous duties are said to have been assigned them as a matter of policy. In these circumstances desertions were numerous, as might have been expected. But with none of the incentives usually prompting the soldier to high performance, with everything, indeed, against them, the Armenian elements, as a whole, earned the commendation of Nazim Pasha, the Turkish commander-in-chief, who declared in one of his des-

patches that the Armenian soldiers had performed their duty loyally and with courage.

Attempts by the Powers to ameliorate the political situation of the Armenian people were continued after the close of the Balkan War. Agreement with the Turkish Government seemed promising at the beginning of 1914, on the basis of an increased number of Armenian deputies for the Ottoman Parliament, and for the supervision of Ottoman officials in the " Six Vilayets " of Eastern Turkey-in-Asia by two European inspectors general to be selected by the Powers. There was also to be equal representation of Moslems and Christians on the councils of the vilayets of Van and Bitlis, in which districts the Armenian population was presumed to equal the Moslem. But the proposed reforms came to nothing. The Young Turk Government already had prevision of great events to come, and were temporizing in anticipation of developments.

The World War. Between Oct. 29 and Nov. 5 1914, the action of the Young Turk Government resulted in war being declared on Turkey by Great Britain, Russia, France and Serbia. In committing their country to support of the Germanic Powers the Young Turk leaders saw, as they thought, the great occasion for recovering lost Turkish provinces and reestablishing the Ottoman Empire on the widest foundations, with corresponding advantage to themselves. They believed that with Germanic support they were speculating in certainties. They resolved to use the fortunate opportunity thus presenting itself for making an end of Ottoman internal difficulties as they saw them. Chief among these was the question of the Christian people, of Asia Minor, the Ottoman Greeks and the Armenians, who cherished national aspirations incompatible with Ottoman sovereignty. The " Turkification " of the whole population of Asia Minor the creation of a single homogeneous race for this great area was the underlying purpose.

Policy of Massacre and Deportation. Row the policy for deal- ing with the Armenian part of the question took form we do not know. Probably Tal'at Pasha and Enver Pasha had as much to do with it as any Tal'at at least is credited with its application but they only sought to follow, on a greater scale, the example set in past years by 'Abdul Hamid. A preposterous and cynical scheme of compulsory colonization as part of the policy has been attributed to German theorists; but it was not even a mask except as affording greater opportunities for destroying the Armenian population. Described in a few words the policy was that of deportation coupled with extermination. The Armenian race was to be uprooted from the wide territories of Asia Minor beyond hope of continuance or return. From convenient areas those of the people able to march were to be deported to Mesopotamia and eastern Syria. Being an industri- ous and prolific race they might, in Mesopotamia, at least, do something toward creating a profitable, taxpaying province in place of one requiring incessant Ottoman outlay. Armenians from provinces too distant for deportation to be practicable were to be exterminated or driven to a fugitive existence.

Statistics of Armenian Population. The following figures show the numbers and distribution of the Armenian race in Trans-Caucasia and Asia Minor, the destruction of which, or at least of the portion contained in Ottoman territory, was to be encompassed. In Russian Armenia the figures are those of the Russian census of 1916. For the Turkish vilayets they are, in the absence of any authoritative and reliable statistics, an exhaustive and impartial estimate for the period immediately before the war:

Districts forming the Armenian Republic of Erivan: Armenians, 795,000; Moslems, 575,000; other elements, 140,000; total, 1,510,000. Areas claimed by Erivan, but claimed also by Georgia or Azerbaijan: Armenians, 410,000; Moslems, 460,000; other elements, 36,000; total, 906,000.

The six Armenian Vilayets of Asia Minor in 1914.

Bitlis.

Diarbekr.

Erzerum.

Mamut el Aziz.

Sivas.

Van.

Totals.

Armenians Moslems Other elements

185,000 261,000 19,000

82,000 400,000 78,000

205,000 540,000 15,000

130,000 480,000 2,000

200,000 977,000 108,000

190,000 260,000 133,000

992,000 2,918,000 355-ooo

Totals.

465,000

560,000

760,000

612,000

1,285,000

583,000

4,265,000