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I. The localized tribal fighting that erupted in the eastern provinces when the pro-Soviet coup seized power in late April 1978 has since grown into a countrywide insurgency. (S)

A. Faced with the hostility of the great majority of the traditionally independent population, the regime of President Taraki and Prime Minister Amin has no better than an even chance to complete its second year in power. (S)

B. Ataraki and Amin will survive only as long as the loyalty of the military, the security service and the ruling party remains intact, under the heavy pressure being brought to bear by hostile forces. (S)

1. The most likely successor regime would be led by, or at least have the backing of leftist military officers. (S)

2. Coup plotters might seek Moscow's tacit approval to seize power would in any case retain strong ties with the Soviet Union. (S)

3. The Soviets favor the installation of a more broadly based government as a means of defusing the tribal insurgency. (S)