Page:China in Revolt (1926).pdf/36

 post-war development was characterized by the shifting, slowly but uninterruptedly, of the center of gravity of world economy to the overseas countries. The tremendous development of capitalism in the United States goes hand in hand with a similar development in a whole series of "virgin countries"—Argentine, Brazil, Canada, Australia, etc. If a great economic crisis does not lead to an economic collapse here, then only an armed struggle on the Pacific Coast can create an immediate revolutionary situation in these overseas countries.

The great importance to world economy of the Asiatic and Pacific colonies must also be taken into consideration, If we take e. g. the share of Asia and of Europe in world trade, we find that Asia's share has risen considerably from the beginning of the world war to 1923. Thus in 1913 Europe's share in world trade amounted to 64,2%, while Asia's share amounted to only 10,1%. But in 1923 Europe's share was 51,9%, while that of Asia was 14,2%.

This phenomena as a whole forces us to enter more deeply into the antagonisms in the Pacific. From the beginning they are to be considered under a dual viewpoint:

1. as to the object of an investigation concerning a possible war in this section of the capitalist front so far removed from Europe;

2. as an investigation of the perspectives of the Chinese revolution in the light of the ripening antagonisms on the Pacific.

Before going into these, I should like to remark on this latter point that the whole constellation of forces on the Pacific, and primarily the relation of forces between the United States and Japan, gives us the possibility of predicting the victory of the Canton Government with some certainty. We have not the slightest occasion for pessimism. If the Canton Government, while simultaneously consolidating its internal situation by means of a closer alliance with the peasantry,