Page:Chance, love, and logic - philosophical essays (IA chancelovelogicp00peir 0).pdf/18

 which he was the first American representative, gave unusual attention to his paper, and men like Cellerier and Plantamour acknowledged their obligations to him.

This and other scientific work involving fine measurement, with the correlative investigations into the theory of probable error, seem to have been a decisive influence in the development of Peirce's philosophy of chance. Philosophers inexperienced in actual scientific measurement may naïvely accept as absolute truth such statements as "every particle of matter attracts every other particle directly as the product of their masses and inversely as the square of the distance," or "when hydrogen and oxygen combine to form water the ratio of their weights is 1 : 8." But to those who are actually engaged in measuring natural phenomena with instruments of precision, nature shows no such absolute constancy or simplicity. As every laboratory worker knows, no two observers, and no one observer in successive experiments, get absolutely identical results. To the men of the heroic period of science this was no difficulty. They held unquestioningly the Platonic faith that nature was created on simple geometric lines, and all the minute variations were attributable to the fault of the observer or the crudity of his instruments. This heroic faith was, and still is, a most powerful stimulus to scientific research and a protection against the incursions of supernaturalism. But few would defend it to-day in its explicit form, and there is little empirical evidence to show that while the observer and his instruments are always varying, the ob-*