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120 that good weather will be essential to the success of such an enormous combined movement as that of three fleets, sailing from three ports, timed to arrive together at a point over 250 miles away; yet who can guarantee that the weather will be fine? The North Sea has a bad reputation; according to Colonel P. H. N. Lake, in summer and autumn one day in five " there would be a swell or other difficulties of the sea to prevent a disembarkation, and about one day in twenty, in addition, when the sea is seriously rough, and vessels would not care to lie off a lee-shore " ; and if he is right—and most sailors will, I think, agree with him—it will be no easy matter to fix a starting-day for the German Expedition.

Then there are fogs: fogs, of course, go with a smooth sea, and, as we know. Lord Roberts reckons them as a factor favourable