Page:CREST-Allendes Chile Supply Demand Gap.pdf/8

  smallest since the early 1950s - reflects both increased idle land on state-controlled farms and extreme pessimism among many remaining private farmers, who failed even to plant wheat. Other crops requiring larger cash outlays naturally were harder hit. Output of such items as garlic and onions failed to meet domestic requirements much less provide the traditional surplus for export.Livestock output dropped even more sharply than crop output in 1971/72. Chile's cattle population had declined from 3 million head when Allende was elected to only about 2.5 million by mid-1971, as cattle producers liquidated herds in anticipation of expropriation and as peasants on newly expropriated farms started eating more beef. Numerous breeding animals and under-sized beef cattle were slaughtered As a result, estimated beef output in 1971/72 fell to little more than half the extraordinary 1970/71 level and to about three-fourths the average.Most indicators point to a further substantial decline in agricultural output in the current crop year. Poor weather and shortages of seed, fertilizer, and credit have compounded continuing problems stemming from government incompetence and private farmers' insecurity. The area sown to winter wheat - normally planted by the end of May - fell by nearly 50% from the previous year's depressed level, and plantings of spring wheat and other crops were three to four weeks behind schedule when the month-long strike began in early October. The strike further disrupted farm operations, produce deliveries, and receipt of agricultural inputs. These factors more than offset the improved profit incentives deriving from a sharp increase in farm product prices announced in August and September. Although post-strike plantings on irrigated land were feasible, insufficient moisture severely depresses yields from non-irrigated plantings made after 1 November. Output of such permanent crops as grapes and other fruits is expected to decline moderately because of fertilizer shortages and failure to perform routine off-season maintenance on many vineyards and orchards. Beef output has remained depressed and can be improved only by sacrificing the rebuilding of Chile's herds - a temptation Allende thus far has resisted. Moreover, feed grain shortages are limiting pork and poultry output.

 