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C00036554 12. Frederick William Winterbotham, The Ultra Secret (New York: Harper & Row, 1974).

13. Richard Betts, "Analysis, war and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable," World Politics 31 (October 1978), 1:61-89.

14. Robert Jervis, "Hypotheses on Misperception," World Politics 20 (April 1968), 3:454-479.

15. Elizabeth J. Kirk, International Perception and Foreign Policy: Literature Survey and Assessment (Mathtech, Inc., Bethesda, Md., 1976).

16. L.F. Ellis, Victory in the West, Volume 1, The Battle of Normandy (London: HMSO, 1962), 128.

17. Anthony Cave Brown, 437.

18. A. Speer, Inside the Third Reich (New York: The Macmillan Company, 1970), 354.

19. Robert Jervis, 455.

20. Ronald Lewin, 309,315.

21. B. Catton, This Hallowed Ground (Gallancz, 1957), 142.

22. D.S. Freeman, Lee's Lieutenants: A Study in Command (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1946), 1:503.

23. David Mure, Practise to Deceive (London: William Kimber, 1977), 14.

24. P. Slovic, "From Shakespeare to Simon: Speculations — And Some Evidence — About Man's Ability to Process Information", Oregon Research Institute Bulletin 12 (April 1972) 2.

25. A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, "The Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971) 105-110.