Page:CIAdeceptionMaximsFactFolklore 1980.pdf/40

C00036554 Thus (recall the discussion regarding the law of small numbers), not only is it hazardous to draw inferences from limited data, given an assumed constancy in stakes, but also rational analysis suggests that an opponent's behavior may well be different when the stakes are high. That is, prior experience may simply be irrelevant.

Maxim 7: sequencing Rule
Deception activities should be sequenced so as to maximize the persistence of the incorrect hypothesis(es) for as long as possible. In other words, "Red-handed" activities should be deferred to the last possible instant.

This principle follows from Jervis' Hypothesis No. 14, "a-ctors tend to overlook the fact that evidence consistent with their theories may also be consistent with other views." (47). Jervis illustrated this 'With an example from World War II — the Allied surprise at the German attack on Norway. According to his sources, the Allies had detected German ships moving towards Norway but misinterpreted the fact because they had expected an attempt to break through the Allied blockade into the Atlantic. The point is raised in Jervis' paper as a fallacy in the interpretation of evidence. In this