Page:CIAdeceptionMaximsFactFolklore 1980.pdf/16

C00036554 FIGURE 1: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DECEPTION, PRECONCEPTION, AND SURPRISE

B. AND SOME CONCLUSIONS

Historically, deceptions schemes have more often been keyed to enemy preconceptions and when deception is keyed to enemy preconception the probability of surprise is greater.

Relevant statistic: Computed Value of Statistic

\chi^2 = \frac{(110-65.5-0.5)^2}{65.5} \cdot \frac{(21-65.5-0.5)^2}{65.5} = 60.47 $$ Critical value of statistic

\chi^2_1(0.05) = 3.84 $$

Relevant Statistic: Computed Value of Statistic

\chi^2 = \frac{ (|(106)(4)-(17)(4)| - \frac{131}{2} )^2 131 }{(110)(123)(21 \cdot 16)} = 4.16 $$ Critical value of statistic

\chi^2_1(0.05) = 3.84 $$