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 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110021-0

'''FIGURE 30. Geographic distribution of foreign trade, 1971 (U/OU)'''

longer run, as trade between the Common Market and the GDR expands and becomes significant it is difficult to predict the EEC's posture on the interzonal trade issue. Another factor which must be considered when discussing the future of interzonal trade is the attitude of the CEMA countries with respect to East Germany's special economic relationship with West Germany after the GDR is generally recognized as an independent state by the West.

b. Volume and direction (U/OU)

East German foreign trade on commercial account has grown rapidly since 1950. Estimated at constant prices, the volume of commercial trade in 1970 was about 7⅓ times that of 1950, whereas GNP was only about 2½ times the 1950 level. If the 1950 trade is adjusted to include uncompensated deliveries to the U.S.S.R., however, the value of exports in 1971 was only about five times the 1950 level. In spite of this rapid growth, total foreign trade in 1971 was still only about two-fifths more than East Germany's external trade (including trade with the rest of Germany) in 1936. Commercial trade, expressed in terms of U.S. dollar equivalents, is summarized in Figure 29.

The geographical composition of East German trade has remained largely stable since the 1950's. About three-fourths of the trade is with other Communist countries, although the Communist countries' share has gradually declined. The U.S.S.R. alone accounts for over half of East German trade with Communist countries, and the other Eastern European Communist countries account for most of the balance. Because of East German dependence on imports of essential raw materials from the U.S.S.R., this trade plays a key role in the development of the economy. The Soviet share in total trade rose from about 43% in 1960 to 49% in 1962 and 1963, and then declined to about 38% in 1971 (Figure 30). There have been changes in the shares of other Communist countries, notably a sharp drop in trade with the People's Republic of China (in 1971 less than half the 1960 level) and a large increase (in 1963) in trade with Cuba, to which East Germany has extended substantial credits.

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110021-0