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 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200070027-9

The Years Ahead (S)

Gierek is taking Poland down a new road that, because of necessity as much as his own pragmatic inclinations, he has left largely undefined. His policies have resulted in a marked improvement in the material lot of most Poles and in the domestic political climate as well. Because of this, he has gained a considerable measure of support from a skeptical people - a people he has promised not only to lead but to consult.

Nevertheless, Gierek's credit with the population is not unlimited, and the ultimate stability of his regime is likely to depend on his maintaining the momentum of his reforms. On this question, Polish public opinion seems to be divided into three camps. The first - and probably the largest - segment of the population believes that Gierek will take effective steps to assure continued improvement of the situation. A second group also has trust in Gierek's leadership, but feels that he is unlikely to succeed in view of the serious obstacles in his path. A third group simply has no confidence in Gierek and believes that, once he has consolidated his power, he will revert to the conservatism and inertia of the later Gomulka period. Although the breakdown may have since shifted somewhat in Gierek's favor, a survey conducted by Western researchers in late 1971 indicated that 39% of the population supported the first view, 25% the second, and 34% the third - with younger people displaying considerable more confidence in Gierek than their elders.

For the time being, these divergent trends in public

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200070027-9