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improvement, however, from the postwar low of 88.4 males per 100 females in 1950, when male losses in the two world wars were more perceptible. Older age groups account for nearly all of the disproportion. While in the marriageable age group of 20 to 29 years the ratio is 103 males per 100 females, in the 40 to 44 age group the ratio declines to 94 men per 100 women and sharply thereafter to 53 males per 100 females at age 75 and over. The general sex ratio is expected to improve, however, to about 97 males per 100 females in 1990.

5. Population policy and projections

From the end of World War II until the mid-1950's, it was in the Polish regime's interest to accelerate the rapid natural growth rate in order to recoup wartime losses, populate newly gained territories, and provide the manpower needed for the planned extensive industrialization drive. During this period the government offered incentives in the form of special allowances for large families. This policy was particularly successful as it coincided with the sanctity-of-life concept of the dominant Roman Catholic religion in Poland. By about 1955, however, the government became aware of the economic need to slow down the natural growth and rising dependency ratio of the population because almost one-fifth of the industrial labor force was underemployed and constituted a major obstacle to planned increases of labor productivity. In addition, the concern of the regime over its ability to satisfy the material needs of future generations prompted the adoption of laws in late 1956 to legalize abortion on medical and economic grounds and the promotion of family planning. The 1956 laws, however, were subject to varying interpretations, the Catholic Church vigorously opposed them, and numerous doctors refused to observe them fully. For these reasons the number of abortions did not rise markedly until after 1960, when a modification of the laws made abortions more easily obtainable, church interference with this practice was specifically proscribed, and other measures to limit the size of families were instituted. The reported number of abortions reached a peak of almost 272,000 in 1962 but declined to about 220,000 in 1970. Since the birth rate has generally continued to decline throughout this period, it can be surmised that contraception, which has been promoted vigorously, has supplanted abortion as the principal device for implementing family planning.

The marked and often unforeseen impact of fluctuating economic, social, and other factors on vital trends has produced a wide range of continually revised projections for future population trends in Poland. In 1965, for example, Western sources projected a population of about 41.2 million by 1985, providing fertility, mortality, and other trends than pertaining were maintained. Four years later, changes

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200070023-3