Page:American Journal of Sociology Volume 6.djvu/121

 ECCENTRIC OFFICIAL STATISTICS IO/

becomes 94.9. That is, the rise of 3^ per cent, is turned into the very con- siderable fall of 5 per cent. In other words, by giving four quotations out of fifty-three to codfish and mackerel, a change of eight points is made for the index number for food.

Referring to the group "Drugs and Chemicals" we find a still more striking illustration of the effect of an abnormal change in price of a single article. This group, which embraces eighteen articles, is represented for 1891 by the index number 86.3, showing a fall in prices for the group since 1860 of not quite 14 per cent. If we omit the single item alcohol, the index number for 1891 becomes 67.2, show- ing a fall of prices for this group of nearly 33 per cent., a difference of nineteen points. The price of alcohol, which includes a tax of several hundred per cent., is no more indicative of the course of prices than the rise of 650 per cent, in the pay of a brewer is indicative of the course of wages. The increase in the one case represents, not an increase in prices, but of taxation, and in the other, not increased pay for the same work, but increased pay for a position of increased responsibility, requiring greater skill and efficiency. Deducting from the price of alcohol, as quoted in 1891, the heavy revenue tax of $2 per gallon, and comparing with the price of 1860, we find, instead of a rise of 311 per cent., a fall of over 50 per cent.

The eccentric methods of the statistician of the Aldrich and present reports we find further illustrated in the food group of the former report, where, besides the four quotations of fish referred to by Pro- fessor Mayo-Smith, we find included as bread eight quotations of differ- ent kinds of crackers, with but one quotation of wheat flour. Wheat is entirely omitted from the summary, though ample data of that article are presented in Part II of the Aldrich report. We find also five quota- tions of salt. Thus salt is given five times and crackers eight times the weight of wheat flour. Though wheat flour fell 27.9 per cent, from 1860 to 1891, the average of the eight quotations of crackers shows a rise of 2.1 per cent. From 1873 to 1891 the price of wheat flour (gold value) fell 40 per cent., while that of crackers fell but 8.4 per cent. At the same time there was a fall of 19.8 per cent, in the price of meat. Yet the food group shows a fall for the period of but 9.8 per cent.

Though it has been thought that because of the inclusion of a larger number of articles the index numbers of the Aldrich report are more to be relied upon than others which show a greater fall of prices, the contrary seems true, because of the undue weight given to articles of little importance. Though in his weighted average Professor Falkner