Page:American Journal of Sociology Volume 3.djvu/111

 ECCENTRIC OFFICIAL STATISTICS 97

undertakes to demonstrate from census statistics that there has been in recent years not only increased opportunity but increased equality of opportunity. Colonel Wright says :

I believe that economic and industrial opportunity does really underlie every sort of opportunity and that we are making real progress toward a greater equality of opportunity through the extension of opportunities themselves ; and when this statement is supplemented by the single fact that the per capita wealth of the country has increased from $308 in 1850 to $1039 > n ^QO, the argument needs little if any further illustration. If the per capita wealth remained the same, then I should subscribe willingly to the idea that social and industrial progress and poverty grow side by side and that the rich are growing richer and the poor poorer.

It is difficult to imagine anything less scientific than such use of statistics, yet Colonel Wright declares: "The statistical method of study, which is the historical and the comparative method in the highest sense, enables us to arrive at some con- clusions directly opposed to those resulting from observation. One is the empirical, the other the scientific method."

Colonel Wright's remark and his use of statistics calls to mind the story of the Scotch merchant whose accountant at the close of the year had presented him a most gratifying balance indicating that his profits during the year were nearly .2000 greater than he had expected. Elated with his good fortune the merchant tells his wife, who insists that since he is so prosper- ous he can afford a new equipage and furniture and new dresses for herself and daughters. Finding it difficult to meet these new expenses the merchant is puzzled to understand how it is that being so prosperous he has not a larger cash balance. He can- not sleep for wonder over the matter, so he dresses himself and goes down to his store more carefully to inspect his books. This inspection revealed the fact that in footing up the column of assets his bookkeeper had included the date 1880 which stood just above. Crestfallen he calls his accountant from his bed, exclaiming, "Sandy ! ye scoundrel! comedown; ye've counted in the year of our Lord."

In this case the merchant's observation was right, while his bookkeeper's statistical method was necessarily incorrect because