Page:American Journal of Sociology Volume 15.djvu/649

 OUTLOOK FOR AMERICAN STATISTICS 635

tration records for the rural population of Australia and New Zealand are entirely complete and accurate.

But the frontier has exerted a more subtle and pervasive influence in checking the development of American statistics. It has been productive of an individualism which asks only to be let alone, which favors a minimum of governmental investigation or regulation, and which is impatient of official interference. Have not this individualism and self-sufficiency been obstacles to the growth of that co-operative action and social control needed for the effective government of a city? If so, our imperfect success thus far in city government may be the obverse of our great success in developing and pushing westward the frontier under the practice of laissez faire.

For nearly twenty years the frontier has almost ceased to be a factor in American civilization. It was prophesied that "with the passing of the free lands a vast extension of the social tend- ency may be expected in America,"^ and the prophecy has come true. The part of this movement with which we are now con- cerned is its influence upon the progress and the future of Ameri- can demography. Probably the present generation has seen a more rapid advance in vital statistics than any preceding one. A survey of the progress will establish this assertion beyond ques- tion.

In 1880 records of deaths based on an effective system were obtained from about one-sixth of the population; in 1909 they were obtained from fully five-ninths. If the extension during the next generation shall be equally rapid, the first half of the twentieth century will see an effective system established in every state. There is ground for being even more sanguine, for believ- ing that the movement, far from being retarded, will accelerate. Each state added to the registration, area reinforces the pressure already exerted upon the remainder by the recommendation of Congress, the tactful but persistent urgency of the Census Bureau, and the example of the eighteen states already included. And in fact, the extension of the registration area during the last four years has been greater than during any preceding decade.


 * F. J. Turner, The Frontier in American History.