Page:American Journal of Sociology Volume 15.djvu/647

 THE OUTLOOK FOR AMERICAN STATISTICS

WALTER F. WILLCOX Cornell University

This anniversary season, when nine organizations engaged in studying diverse aspects of man's social Hfe are gathered at the metropoHs of America for fraternal co-operation and mutual inspiration, naturally invites attention to the field and the outlook of the several societies. Statistics as a subject, however, is larger and more impersonal than the association created to develop it and thus a better theme for our annual reunion.

But why American statistics? Because statistics, like history and unlike economics or sociology, invites or demands a national rather than an international or universal treatment. Statistics is connected with and dependent upon the state, not merely by derivation of the word and history of the thing, but also by a rigid necessity. The original statistical inquiries which have been made by private agencies are insignificant in comparison with those which have been organized by government. In this field the aim of private citizens must be almost confined to a further interpretation and utilization of official returns with due regard to the probable error of the figures. The outlook for statistics, then, depends mainly upon the attitude of government toward the subject.

The first branch of statistical work to develop in the modern world was the statistics of deaths. A little later came that of births and of marriages. This branch of statistics, which in English is usually known as vital statistics but in France and other countries is more often termed demography, was established as a national system in England and Wales in 1837, and, although the historical connection has not been traced, there is little doubt that the establishment of the English registration system in 1837 was an important influence leading to the organization of this society in 1839, twenty-six years before any other of the associa- tions with which we meet today was founded, and to the center-

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