Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/97

Rh would have for an argument this difference would be about nine centuries. Indeed its coefficient would be of the order of the cubes of the eccentricities of the orbits; but I knew that by virtue of successive integrations it acquired for divisor the square of the very small multiplier of the time in the argument of this inequality which is able to give it a great value; the existence of this inequality appeared to me then very probable. The following observation increased then its probability. Supposing its argument zero toward the epoch of the observations of Ticho-Brahé, I saw that Halley ought to have found by the comparison of modern with ancient observations the alterations which he had indicated; while the comparison of the modern observations among themselves ought to offer contrary alterations similar to those which Lambert had concluded from this comparison. I did not then hesitate at all to undertake this long and tedious calculation necessary to assure myself of this inequality. It was entirely confirmed by the result of this calculation, which moreover made me recognize a great number of other inequalities of which the totality has. inclined the tables of Jupiter and Saturn to the precision of the same observations.

It was again by means of the calculus of probabilities that I recognized the remarkable law of the mean movements of the three first satellites of Jupiter, according to which the mean longitude of the first minus three times that of the second plus two times that of the third is rigorously equal to the half-circumference. The approximation with which the mean movements of these stars satisfy this law since their discovery indicates its existence with an extreme probability. I sought