Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/93

Rh condition that the sum of the variations from each partial value all taken positively should be a minimum. It appears indeed natural to regard as very approximate the result which satisfies this condition. It is easy to see that if one disposes the values given by the observations according to the order of magnitude, the value which will occupy the mean will fulfil the preceding condition, and calculus renders it apparent that in the case of an infinite number of observations it would coincide with the truth; but the result given by the most advantageous method is still preferable.

We see by that which precedes that the theory of probabilities leaves nothing arbitrary in the manner of distributing the errors of the observations; it gives for this distribution the most advantageous formulae which diminishes as much as possible the errors to be feared in the results.

The consideration of probabilities can serve to distinguish the small irregularities of the celestial movements enveloped in the errors of observations, and to repass to the cause of the anomalies observed in these movements.

In comparing all the observations it was Ticho-Brahé who recognized the necessity of applying to the moon an equation of time different from that which had been applied to the sun and to the planets. It was similarly the totality of a great number of observations which made Mayer recognize that the coefficient of the inequality of the precession ought to be diminished a little for the moon. But since this diminution, although confirmed and even augmented by Mason, did not appear to result from universal gravitation, the majority