Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/92

82 obtaining directly the most advantageous correction which results from the measurements of the several bases and the laws of probability which the multiplicity of the bases makes—laws which become very rapidly decreasing by this multiplicity.

Generally the errors of the results deduced from a great number of observations are the linear functions of the partial errors of each observation. The coefficients of these functions depend upon the nature of the problem and upon the process followed in order to obtain the results. The most advantageous process is evidently that in which the same error in the results is less probable than according to any other process. The application of the calculus of probabilities to natural philosophy consists, then, in determining analytically the probability of the values of these functions and in choosing their indeterminant coefficients in such a manner that the law of this probability should be most rapidly descending. Eliminating, then, from the formulae by the data of the question the factor which is introduced by the almost always unknown law of the probability of partial errors, we may be able to evaluate numerically the probability that the errors of the results do not exceed a given quantity. We shall thus have all that may be desired touching the results deduced from a great number of observations.

Very approximate results may be obtained by other considerations. Suppose, for example, that one has a thousand and one observations of the same quantity; the arithmetical mean of all these observations is the result given by the most advantageous method. But one would be able to choose the result according to the