Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/88

78 exact by substituting in it the observation plus its error; and if we draw from it the expression of this error, it is easy to see that the condition of the minimum of the sum of the squares of these expressions gives the rule in question. This rule is the more precise as the observations are more numerous; but even in the case where their number is small it appears natural to employ the same rule which in all cases offers a simple means of obtaining without groping the corrections which we seek to determine. It serves further to compare the precision of the divers astronomical tables of the same star. These tables may always be supposed as reduced to the same form, and then they differ only by the epochs, the mean movements and the coefficients of the arguments; for if one of them contains a coefficient which is not found in the others, it is clear that this amounts to supposing zero in them as the coefficient of this argument. If now we rectify these tables by the totality of the good observations, they would satisfy the condition that the sum of the squares of the errors should be a minimum; the tables which, compared to a considerable number of observations, approach nearest this condition merit then the preference.

It is principally in astronomy that the method explained above may be employed with advantage. The astronomical tables owe the truly astonishing exactitude which they have attained to the precision of observations and of theories, and to the use of equations of conditions which cause to concur a great number of excellent observations in the correction of the same element. But it remains to determine the probability of the errors that this correction leaves still to be