Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/80

70 observed has appeared to some scholars to be a proof of Providence, without which they have thought that the irregular causes which disturb without ceasing the course of events ought several times to have rendered the annual births of girls superior to those of boys.

But this proof is a new example of the abuse which has been so often made of final causes which always disappear on a searching examination of the questions when we have the necessary data to solve them. The constancy in question is a result of regular causes which give the superiority to the births of boys and which extend it to the anomalies due to hazard when the number of annual births is considerable. The investigation of the probability that this constancy will maintain itself for a long time belongs to that branch of the analysis of hazards which passes from past events to the probability of future events; and taking as a basis the births observed from 1745 to 1784, it is a bet of almost 4 against 1 that at Paris the annual births of boys will constantly surpass for a century the births of girls; there is then no reason to be astonished that this has taken place for a half-century.

Let us take another example of the development of constant ratios which events present in the measure that they are multiplied. Let us imagine a series of urns arranged circularly, and each containing a very great number of white balls and black balls; the ratio of white balls to the black in the urns being originally very different and such, for example, that one of these urns contains only white balls, while another contains only black balls. If one draws a ball from the first urn in order to put it into the second, and, after having