Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/77

Rh government, convinced of the utility of a similar enumeration, has decided at my request to order its execution. In thirty districts spread out equally over the whole of France, communities have been chosen which would be able to furnish the most exact information. Their enumerations have given 2037615 individuals as the total number of their inhabitants on the 23d of September, 1802. The statement of the births in these communities during the years 1800, 1801, and 1802 have given:

The ratio of the population to annual births is then 28$352845⁄1000000$; it is greater than had been estimated up to this time. Multiplying the number of annual births in France by this ratio, we shall have the population of this kingdom. But what is the probability that the population thus determined will not deviate from the true population beyond a given limit? Resolving this problem and applying to its solution the preceding data, I have found that, the number of annual births in France being supposed to be 1000000, which brings the population to 28352845 inhabitants, it is a bet of almost 300000 against 1 that the error of this result is not half a million.

The ratio of the births of boys to that of girls which the preceding statement offers is that of 22 to 21; and the marriages are to the births as 3 is to 4.

At Paris the baptisms of children of both sexes vary a little from the ratio of 22 to 21. Since 1745, the