Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/171

Rh appreciating with justice the inconveniences of the ones and the others, and the probability of the proper means to guard ourselves against them. It is this which leads alternately to despotism and to anarchy the people who are driven from the state of repose to which they never return except after long and cruel agitations.

This vivid impression which we receive from the presence of events, and which allows us scarcely to remark the contrary events observed by others, is a principal cause of error against which one cannot sufficiently guard himself.

It is principally at games of chance that a multitude of illusions support hope and sustain it against unfavorable chances. The majority of those who play at lotteries do not know how many chances are to their advantage, how many are contrary to them. They see only the possibility by a small stake of gaining a considerable sum, and the projects which their imagination brings forth, exaggerate to their eyes the probability of obtaining it; the poor man especially, excited by the desire of a better fate, risks at play his necessities by clinging to the most unfavorable combinations which promise him a great benefit. All would be without doubt surprised by the immense number of stakes lost if they could know of them; but one takes care on the contrary to give to the winnings a great publicity, which becomes a new cause of excitement for this funereal play.

When a number in the lottery of France has not been drawn for a long time the crowd is eager to cover it with stakes. They judge since the number has not been drawn for a long time that it ought at the next