Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/149

Rh demanded for the condemnation is eight of twelve votes, the probability of the error to be feared $1093⁄8192$, or a little more than one eighth, it is almost $1⁄22$ if this plurality consists of nine votes. In the case of unanimity the probability of the error to be feared is $1⁄8192$, that is to say, more than a thousand times less than in our juries. This supposes that the unanimity results only from proofs favorable or contrary to the accused; but motives that are entirely strange, ought oftentimes to concur in producing it, when it is imposed upon the jury as a necessary condition of its judgment. Then its decisions depending upon the temperament, the character, the habits of the jurors, and the circumstances in which they are placed, they are sometimes contrary to the decisions which the majority of the jury would have made if they had listened only to the proofs; this seems to me to be a great fault of this manner of judging.

The probability of the decision is too feeble in our juries, and I think that in order to give a sufficient guarantee to innocence, one ought to demand at least, a plurality of nine votes in twelve.