Page:A philosophical essay on probabilities Tr. Truscott, Emory 1902.djvu/108

98 Jupiter, of the ring of Saturn, and of one of its satellites have been recognized. These movements form with those of revolution a totality of forty-three movements directed in the same sense; but one finds by the analysis of probabilities that it is a bet of more than 4000000000000 against one that this disposition is not the result of hazard; this forms a probability indeed superior to that of historical events in regard to which no doubt exists. We ought then to believe at least with equal confidence that a primitive cause has directed the planetary movements, especially if we consider that the inclination of the greatest number of these movements at the solar equator is very small.

Another equally remarkable phenomenon of the solar system is the small degree of the eccentricity of the orbs of the planets and the satellites, while those of the comets are very elongated, the orbs of the system not offering any intermediate shades between a great and a small eccentricity. We are again forced to recognize here the effect of a regular cause; chance has certainly not given an almost circular form to the orbits of all the planets and their satellites; it is then that the cause which has determined the movements of these bodies has rendered them almost circular. It is necessary, again, that the great eccentricities of the orbits of the comets should result from the existence of this cause without its having influenced the direction of their movements; for it is found that there are almost as many retrograde comets as direct comets, and that the mean inclination of all their orbits to the ecliptic approaches very nearly half a right angle, as it ought to be if the bodies had been thrown at hazard.